What the 2026 Snow Drought Means for Your Summer Fly Fishing

Photo by Mitch Bowers

It’s mid-January. By now, Western river corridors are usually buried under a comforting blanket of white—money in the bank for July hatches and August dry-fly action. But this year, a glance at the SNOTEL map reveals a starkly different reality: red and orange dots dominate the landscape, signaling a winter that simply hasn’t arrived.

According to the National Integrated Drought Information System, snow cover across the West is at its lowest extent in the MODIS satellite record, which dates back to 2001. The culprit isn’t necessarily a lack of moisture, but rather a lack of cold. Unseasonably warm temperatures have pushed the freezing line higher in elevation, causing much of the season’s precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow. December temperatures in Utah and Colorado were the warmest on record.

“Much of the western U.S. has started 2026 in the midst of a snow drought,” reports The Conversation. “That might sound surprising, given the record precipitation from atmospheric rivers hitting the region in recent weeks, but those storms were actually part of the problem.”

Regional Breakdown: The Good, The Bad, and The Bare

Utah & Colorado: The Epicenter

The situation is most critical in the central Rockies. Snow water equivalent in Utah and Colorado is less than 60% of median in most basins, with southwestern and western Colorado and the Upper Colorado basin of Utah hit hardest. Utah’s assistant state climatologist Jon Meyer highlighted broader concerns: “We look at the potential for the Olympics coming up and wanting to have pretty good snow conditions for the 2034 Winter Olympics, and years like this highlight the risk of how climate change is impacting snowpack in Utah.”

California: A Tale of Two Sierras

The Golden State presents a divided picture. Statewide, the snowpack is 71 percent of average according to the California Department of Water Resources’ first survey of the season. The data reveals a sharp north-south divide: the Southern Sierra is performing well at about 114% of normal, while the central Sierra lags at 61%. Anglers targeting the northern drainages should anticipate leaner flows.

Pacific Northwest: Wet but Warm

Washington and Oregon have seen near-normal precipitation totals, but the warmth has taken its toll. According to Washington’s Department of Ecology, “For Washington water supplies, there is no substitute for snow. We rely on a thick snowpack to build up over winter, and then gradually melt in spring and summer, feeding rivers and refilling aquifers.”

The December atmospheric river that dumped record precipitation actually made things worse. The rainfall melted a significant amount of snow in mountain watersheds, decreasing the amount of water stored in the snowpack by about 50% in the Yakima River Basin.

Montana: The Bright Spot

If there is a silver lining, it’s in Big Sky Country. The Flathead River basin reached a snow water equivalent of 114% of normal by January 9, with the Sun-Teton-Marias basin at 126%. However, hydrologists describe the state as a “tale of two snowpacks,” with low-elevation SNOTEL stations consistently below 70% of median while high elevations show a different trend.

What This Means for the 2026 Fishing Season

For fly anglers, this trajectory suggests a summer season requiring adaptability. Low snowpack historically correlates with reduced runoff volume, earlier peak flows, and—most critically—higher water temperatures earlier in the summer.

Prepare for Early Hoot Owl Restrictions

Freestone rivers in Utah, Colorado, and the Pacific Northwest are at highest risk. Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks institutes “hoot owl” restrictions—prohibiting fishing from 2 PM to midnight—when water temperatures reach at least 73 degrees for three consecutive days. Water temperatures of 77 degrees or more can be lethal to trout. Without the slow release of snowmelt to cool rivers in July and August, expect these restrictions earlier and more widely than in typical years.

Shift Your Strategy

If these trends persist through spring, anglers should diversify their destinations. Tailwaters like the Green in Utah or the Fryingpan in Colorado rely on reservoir storage rather than immediate runoff, providing colder, more stable flows. High-country streams often stay cooler longer—this might be the summer to hike in deep rather than floating the big rivers. Based on current data, Montana and the Southern Sierra may offer the most reliable flows come late summer.

While late-season storms could still turn the tide, the current deficits would require what water managers call a “miracle March” to offset. For now, keep an eye on the gauges—but start forming your plan B.