The Golden State Salmon Association is asking Governor Gavin Newsom, the State Water Resources Control Board, and Attorney General Rob Bonta to intervene before fall, warning that the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s operation of Shasta Dam could again warm the Sacramento River past what next season’s Chinook can survive.
In a June 27 statement carried by Maven’s Notebook and reported by Active NorCal on June 29, the group said Reclamation intends to draw the reservoir down to boost Central Valley farm deliveries and, in GSSA’s characterization, will proceed with those releases regardless. Reclamation has not publicly said it will act against the Board.
The Board’s June 10 action, formally titled a “Response,” is the pivot point. Maven’s Notebook headlined it a rejection, quoting Executive Director Eric Oppenheimer that “I cannot approve the final TMP as currently written” and noting the final plan Reclamation submitted June 1 remained largely unchanged from the draft. Board staff had urged Reclamation in a May 15 letter to leave at least 2.4 million acre-feet in Shasta at the end of September to protect in-river temperatures and reduce risk carrying into 2027; Reclamation is projecting closer to 2.2 million acre-feet, with cold-water volumes potentially resembling 2015, a difficult temperature-management year.
Differences in Analysis, Reports
Reclamation’s own May 19 release raised south-of-Delta agricultural allocations from 20 to 25 percent of contract totals and municipal and industrial contractors from 70 to 75 percent, tied to Executive Order 14181. Acting Regional Director Adam Nickels credited “careful coordination and improved spring runoff conditions” for the additional supplies. The release does not mention salmon; the “salmon-killing” framing is coming from the Board and conservation groups, not Reclamation. Beneath the political fight is a modeling gap: Reclamation’s temperature-dependent mortality analysis projects roughly 0.7 percent stage-dependent egg mortality this fall, while the NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center’s modeling puts the mean closer to 5 percent and as high as 27 percent depending on assumptions.
One day after Active NorCal’s alarm, Newsom’s office released a salmon-recovery progress report claiming 49 percent of 71 actions in the state’s Salmon Strategy are complete, touting Klamath returns of 211 adult Chinook in Jenny Creek and 327 in Shovel Creek after dam removal, plus 42 spring-run Chinook released above Yuba River barriers in 2025. The release did not mention the Shasta Temperature Management Plan dispute. As of July 2, none of the offices GSSA petitioned had publicly responded.
The fishery those recovery numbers describe is still climbing out of a crash. California’s commercial ocean salmon fishery was closed for three straight years before reopening this spring; recreational was fully closed in 2023 and 2024, with six open days allowed in 2025. Federal disaster aid has totaled about $20.6 million, released only for the 2023 closure, and the Pacific Fishery Management Council projected a Sacramento Index of roughly 392,000 fall-run Chinook for 2026, the highest since 2022. GSSA executive director Vance Staplin pressed Reclamation this spring for extra Shasta releases to support Coleman National Fish Hatchery’s spring release of 6.2 million juvenile fall-run Chinook into Battle Creek, and said at the time he had not heard back.
What This Means for Anglers
For fly anglers, the connection runs through the lower Sacramento. The wild rainbow trout tailwater from Keswick Dam through Redding to Red Bluff draws on the same cold-water pool Reclamation is being asked to conserve for fall-run Chinook. Fly Fish Food’s June 28 report put the river near Bend Bridge at about 12,800 cfs, elevated but stable, with trout on seams and PMD and caddis hatches active. What Reclamation sends downstream this fall shapes both the salmon spawning window and the trout fishery below the dam.
See prior MidCurrent coverage: Salmon Avoid Drought, Get Ride to Delta
